2020: The End of US Gov't Human Spaceflight?

For a while I've been wanting to write a blog post about what's going on with US human spaceflight. The problem is that there has been so many developments I don't have enough time to write a meaningful post before it's no longer valid. I don't just want to repeat what others say. Instead, I want to add a new perspective. Therefore, I've decided to not focus on the latest developments, but rather see if I can connect the dots to see where this is all going.

...Previously, on US Human Spaceflight Policy...

Everyone seems to now realize that the space shuttle is retiring and there's nothing that can be done to stop it. Sometime in 2011 the last space shuttle flight will launch from Kennedy Space Center and no one knows then the next US manned launch will be after it lands. This has left a lot of politicians, engineers, astronauts, and fans in suspense.

There had been plenty of notice about the end of the space shuttle. Back in 2004 then President George W. Bush announced the Vision for Space Exploration (VSE) in response to the space shuttle Columbia disaster. The plan called for the retiring of the space shuttle in 2010 after the completion of the International Space Station (ISS).

At the time, the VSE called for Ares to replace the space shuttle to take crew to and from the International Space Station, the moon, and perhaps one day Mars. The plan moved forward, but funding was lacking from Congress. When President Obama took office the level of funding didn't improve and a commission studying the program determined it needed accelerated funds to meet the original goals. Instead of continuing the funding President Obama's policy directed the space program to rely on commercial transport and halted work on the Ares rockets.

Future Past

Personally, I find the idea of commercial space transport to be very exciting. It's about time. I think back to the opening scenes to 2001: A Space Odyssey where the Pan Am space plane docks with the space station.

...even though Pan Am isn't around anymore. So what about NASA and it's role after commercial space transportation is implemented?

Connecting the Dots (or bullet points)

Putting together the following items leads to a scary conclusion:

• Currently there aren't any programs from NASA that can send humans past low earth orbit. There is talk of a new program for a heavy lift rocket, but NASA doesn't want it and Congress doesn't have a goal for it.
• The ISS will continue until 2020...and then?
• If there isn't a system from NASA that could go beyond the space station by mid-decade, would any more effort be made in US human spaceflight past 2020 after the ISS is decomissioned?

Similar but different

I think back to the Concorde program from last century. The British and French spent a lot of time and money to develop a commercial supersonic aircraft. President Kennedy also made a speech about how the US was going to win this contest for supersonic transport. The US gave up without building a single aircraft. The Concorde fleet was retired in 2003 due to many factors. Commercial supersonic flights have not flown since retirement.

2020: Big Finish or New Start?

Personally I hope commercial spaceflight takes off and becomes a viable industry. Hopefully it won't share the same fate as commercial supersonic air travel. Also, work needs to be done now to look past 2020 and leverage as much as possible on the next big thing.

For the next big thing I'd like to see the partners of the ISS think about an outpost on the moon. The International Lunar Outpost (my term) could implement much of what NASA's Project Constellation was to accomplish and share the costs with international partners. Together the partners can answer the question of can we live on another celestial body and what commerce can be developed from it.

It's going to be a fun ride.

All non-spam comments will be published. My master's degree is in Space Systems and my career has focused on various aspects of aerospace and software development. As you can tell, I like to think about the US space program ;)